Jobs Shock Rocks Markets: Dollar Plunges, Gold Soars to Records
Market Sentiment Overview
Markets experienced dramatic shifts following Friday’s shocking US jobs report showing only 22,000 new positions added in August, far below the 75,000 expected. This weak data has virtually guaranteed a Fed rate cut at the September 16-17 meeting, with markets now pricing in 99.3% probability of a 25bp cut and some betting on 50bp. The Dollar Index crashed to three-week lows near 97.40, while Gold surged to fresh record highs approaching $3,600. Political tensions over Fed independence are mounting as President Trump battles with Fed officials in court.
Currencies
USD Index: Breakdown Accelerates (97.31)
Current Trend: Bearish Market Sentiment: Negative
The Dollar Index has broken down to 97.31, showing clear weakness below the 20-day moving average with accelerating selling pressure. The breakdown from recent consolidation opens the path to test critical support at 96.42, with failure targeting 95.89. Resistance now sits at 98.18 and 98.81, representing the broken support levels. Political pressure on Fed independence adds to fundamental concerns, with Trump firing BLS officials and questioning data integrity. The stochastic at 31.36 shows oversold conditions but lacks bullish divergence signals.
EUR/USD: Dollar Weakness Fuels Rally (1.1717)
Current Trend: Bullish Market Sentiment: Positive
EUR/USD capitalizes on Dollar weakness at 1.1717, establishing higher lows since August and trading above its ascending 20-day moving average. The pair targets resistance at 1.1803, with a break opening at 1.1935 (yearly highs). Support holds at 1.1596 and 1.1470, providing a solid foundation. Thursday’s ECB meeting remains crucial – expectations for a hold at 2.00% with confident guidance could fuel further gains. The stochastic at 47.50 suggests room for additional upside momentum before reaching overbought levels.
GBP/USD: Fiscal Concerns Limit Gains (1.3501)
Current Trend: Neutral Market Sentiment: Mixed
Sterling remains range-bound at 1.3501 despite broad Dollar weakness, reflecting persistent UK fiscal uncertainties. The pair struggles at 1.3655 resistance, with stronger resistance at 1.3788, while support at 1.3389 and 1.3254 defines the range. The flattening 20-day moving average indicates indecision. Chancellor Reeves’ November 26 budget looms with potential £50 billion fiscal adjustments weighing on sentiment. The stochastic at 49.32 reflects neutral momentum, with Friday’s GDP data crucial for direction.
Stocks
S&P 500: Records Amid September Caution (6479.50)
Current Trend: Bullish Market Sentiment: Cautiously Optimistic
The S&P 500 holds near records at 6479.50, supported by its rising 20-day moving average but facing resistance in the 6585.80-6736.32 zone. September historically represents the worst month for stocks, creating caution despite Fed rate cut optimism. Support sits at 6355.02 and 6210.22. The stochastic at 75.76 indicates overbought conditions typical of strong bull markets but warns of potential volatility. Elevated valuations leave markets vulnerable to disappointments, particularly around upcoming inflation data.
Adobe (ADBE): AI Strategy on Trial (348.94)
Current Trend: Bearish (Recovering) Market Sentiment: Cautious
Adobe reports Q3 FY25 results on Wednesday, September 11, at 4:05 PM ET, with analysts expecting $5.18 EPS and $5.91 billion revenue representing strong year-over-year growth. However, shares have dropped 22% in 2025 as investors question whether the company’s agentic AI strategy is translating into meaningful revenue growth. Central to Adobe’s transformation are autonomous AI agents embedded across workflows, with CEO Shantanu Narayen highlighting Acrobat AI Assistant as “redefining how people extract value from digital documents.” While Q2 results beat estimates and management raised full-year guidance to $23.50-$23.60 billion in revenue, the stock remains under pressure until AI monetization becomes more evident.
Commodities
Gold: Parabolic Rally Continues (3,586.79)
Current Trend: Strongly Bullish Market Sentiment: Euphoric
Gold exhibits parabolic behavior at 3,586.79, far exceeding normal technical parameters with momentum-driven price action. The precious metal targets 3,618.93 and the psychological 3,686.34 level, with distant support at 3,538.67 and 3,477.67. The extreme stochastic reading of 87.28 warns of potential volatility, though parabolic moves can sustain overbought conditions for extended periods. Safe-haven flows from geopolitical tensions, UK fiscal turmoil, and Fed dovishness continue driving demand despite technically stretched levels.
WTI Crude Oil: Stabilizing Above Key Support (64.59)
Current Trend: Neutral Market Sentiment: Cautious
WTI crude stabilizes at 64.59, holding above critical 60.13 support despite ongoing OPEC+ supply concerns. Immediate resistance sits at 64.62, followed by 67.40, while deeper support at 57.35 represents a key medium-term level. The stochastic at 36.17 suggests oversold conditions with technical bounce potential. Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting could determine direction, with Saudi Arabia reportedly pushing to accelerate the return of 1.66 million barrels per day of curtailed supply to reclaim market share.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin: Institutional Support Continues (111,045.65)
Current Trend: Neutral Market Sentiment: Mixed
Bitcoin consolidates at 111,045.65, showing higher lows since August but struggling above the 114,344.13 resistance. A break targets 117,955.25, while failure risks 107,665.52 or 103,704.94 support. The stochastic at 54.47 reflects sideways momentum. Corporate treasury companies remain the second-largest Bitcoin buyers in 2025, acquiring roughly 1,400 BTC daily. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recovered to 48 (neutral), suggesting bearish pressure is easing despite broader market uncertainties.
Central Bank Calendar & Key Events (September 8–12, 2025)
Major Central Bank Meetings
- Thursday: ECB Rate Decision (2.00% expected hold), Turkish Central Bank Decision
Critical Economic Releases
- Monday: China Trade Data, Japan Current Account & Revised Q2 GDP, Germany Industrial Output
- Tuesday: Australia Business Confidence, New Zealand Manufacturing Sales
- Wednesday: China CPI & PPI, US PPI, Adobe Earnings (4:05 PM ET)
- Thursday: US CPI (headline 2.8% expected), Weekly Jobless Claims, Sweden CPI
- Friday: UK July GDP, Manufacturing Output, Canada Building Permits, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Political/Geopolitical Risks
- Monday: French Budget Vote (potential government collapse)
- Sunday: OPEC+ Meeting (supply decisions)
- Ongoing: Fed independence concerns, UK fiscal uncertainty
Week Ahead Outlook
Thursday’s US CPI emerges as the week’s critical catalyst, potentially influencing whether the Fed delivers 25bp or 50bp at the September 16–17 meeting. Current estimates suggest headline CPI at 2.8% year-on-year, while core CPI likely holds at 3.1%. Any significant upside surprise could pare dovish expectations and support the battered Dollar.
ECB’s policy hold on Thursday should confirm the divergence between Fed dovishness and ECB patience, potentially supporting EUR/USD’s advance toward yearly highs. Lagarde will likely emphasize confidence in the current policy stance, given inflation near target and reduced trade war risks.
OPEC+ dynamics on Sunday could determine oil’s next major move, with the Saudi push for increased production threatening further downside. French political risks on Monday add another layer of uncertainty for European markets.
Adobe’s Wednesday earnings represent a crucial test for AI monetization across the tech sector, with implications extending beyond individual stock performance to broader AI investment themes.
The combination of weak US data, political pressure on Fed independence, and persistent geopolitical tensions suggests continued Dollar weakness and safe-haven demand for Gold. However, elevated equity valuations and historical September weakness warrant caution for risk assets.
Risk management remains paramount given heightened political uncertainties, central bank pivots, and commodity market volatility.
